Human System Model

Economic Projection & Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model

The EPPA model provides projections of world economic development at a regional and sectoral level, including the economic implications of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, conventional air pollution, land-use change, food demand, and natural resource use.

EPPA simulates the evolution of economic, demographic, trade and technological processes involved in activities that affect the environment. We use it to investigate the economic implications of a wide range of phenomena, including:

  • Climate and environmental impacts (e.g. changes in crop yields and human health)
  • Resource depletion and new technologies
  • Policies aimed at reducing emissions of GHGs and other pollutants
  • Policies aimed at limiting trade or land-use change
  • Deployment of specific technologies (e.g. wind power, solar power, carbon capture and storage, crop yield-enhancing technology)
  • Simulations of future emissions of GHGs and other pollutants as input for the MIT Earth System Model (MESM).
  • Land-use change and cover as input for the MIT Earth System Model (MESM).
  • Energy, economic, and emission projections for the MIT Global Change Outlook.

The core model includes 18 global regions, but its framework has been applied with greater spatial, economic sector and household resolution for detailed studies.

More detailed information about the EPPA model structure

Download the public version of the EPPA model

To learn how your organization can benefit from funding our research, please visit the Joint Program Sponsorship page. 

Lead EPPA Modelers

Sergey Paltsev, Henry Chen, Angelo Gurgel and Jennifer Morris

Key Papers on the EPPA Model

Publications

News + Media

How will U.S. land use change by 2050?
News Release
How will U.S. land use change by 2050?

New modeling framework projects how pressures on the global food system could impact cropland, pastureland and forests

Amanda Giang presents at the podium of Global Change Forum 47, with MIT CS3  banner in the background.
News Release
Sustainability science: navigating the challenges of global change

Key points from the 47th MIT Global Change Forum

Los Angeles wildfires, January 2025
News Release
Projecting and reducing the global economic impacts of climate change

Modeling improvements needed to provide more reliable guidance to decision-makers, finds MIT CS3-led study 

People

Research staff
Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy; MIT Energy Initiative
Research staff
Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy
Research staff
Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy; MIT Energy Initiative
Faculty
Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy; Sloan School of Management
Research staff
Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy; MIT Energy Initiative