News Releases
Alli Gold Roberts
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Despite global treaties and national regulations limiting toxic chemicals known as persistent organic pollutants (POPs), many of these chemicals still remain in the environment for long periods of time and accumulate in our land, water and air. These chemicals reach remote regions of the globe, like the Arctic, through air currents and have dangerous effects on humans and animals. Warming of the atmosphere and changing patterns of wind and rain, due to climate change, can affect where and when these pollutants travel. However, the impact of climate on POPs—how these patterns will change, and in what direction—is not well known.
In a new study published in Environmental Science and Technology, MIT researchers assess the impacts of both climate change and future emissions on a group of POPs called polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)—toxic byproducts of burning wood, coal and oil. They are the first to address the influence of climate change on the transport of PAHs.
They find that decreases in human emissions are expected to cause PAH concentrations to decline by up to 37 percent by 2050. But, climate change can either reduce or enhance that decline depending on the physical and chemical properties of different PAHs.
“We are interested in PAHs because they continue to be released into the atmosphere and their concentrations have been increasing in Arctic marine life, in contrast to most other POPs,” says Carey Friedman, a postdoctoral associate with the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the lead author of the study. “We find that projected decreases in human emissions will have a stronger impact on atmospheric PAH levels in the future than changes in climate.”
However, the authors find that this statement has important caveats. As temperatures rise, due to climate change, more volatile PAHs that are currently deposited in soil and vegetation are expected be emitted—actually re-emitted—into the atmosphere.
“This represents a ‘climate penalty’ for atmospheric concentrations of more volatile PAHs, meaning that emissions reductions will not be as effective as they would have been if the climate wasn’t changing,” explains Noelle Selin, co-author of the study and an assistant professor of engineering systems and atmospheric chemistry.
In contrast, atmospheric levels of non-volatile PAHs are expected to decrease under 2050 climate conditions because their ability to be deposited into the soil and land will be enhanced.
“Our results suggest that ratios of the different types of PAHs (volatile to non-volatile) in the Arctic can be used to diagnose whether the atmosphere is experiencing greater influence from climate change or reductions in human emissions,” says Friedman.
This raises the possibility that such a technique could be used to measure the effectiveness of emissions reduction activities in the context of ongoing climate change.
The study is part a series of NSF-funded research tracking how chemicals travel to remote Arctic environments and how they can be better managed. Researchers have presented the results of these studies to help inform policymakers on the most effective methods of addressing POPs like PAHs, which are affecting humans and the environment.
Read about the team’s earlier research results: http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/search
Alli Gold Roberts
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions will come at a cost to energy producers, industry and consumers. Policymakers around the globe are working to determine the most effective and cost efficient way to reduce these emissions—from renewable energy subsidies and fuel efficiency standards to carbon taxes and cap-and-trade policies.
To tackle this challenge, Sergey Paltsev from MIT and Pantelis Capros from the National Technical University of Athens have come together to assess which methods and metrics are best for calculating the cost of climate policies. In their study, published this week in Climate Change Economics, they find that there is no one ideal metric for climate mitigation policies, but measuring changes in consumer welfare is one of the most appropriate techniques.
“With many of these regulations, the total costs are often less visible to consumers because the true costs are not reflected in the price of energy, but distributed to other sectors of the economy,” says Paltsev, the assistant director for economic research at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. “The true measure of the cost of a policy is reflected in the change in consumers’ behavior, something that economists call as ‘change in welfare,’ but it is hard to convey this measure to policy makers and general public.”
In the study, the researchers compare different concepts that are used to inform the public about the cost implications of climate change. They consider two major modeling types where costs are calculated, energy system models and macroeconomic models. Energy system models focus solely on the energy sector and treat the rest of the economy as a given. Macroeconomic models represent the energy system as part of the entire economy and provide more detailed information on the various sectors. Within these approaches there are a variety of metrics used to calculate the cost of a climate mitigation policy.
After studying the cost metrics associated with each modeling approach, the researchers compared the metrics used by a team of international researchers to better understand the impacts of the current EU emissions targets (the EU Energy Modeling Forum 28 study). They find that there are large variations in cost estimates and most metrics are not directly comparable, which makes it difficult for policymakers to interpret the results of these studies.
Paltsev says there is no ideal metric for costs, but it’s clear that some approaches are more effective than others. For example, carbon prices and marginal abatement cost curves are unable to reflect the full impact of the policy on the economy. In addition, energy system models do not always take into account the full cost of a climate policy—particularly the economic impacts of policies interacting with one another. The authors recognize that depending on the objectives, other metrics and modeling techniques may be appropriate. They conclude that measuring changes in consumer welfare or consumption is an effective approach that should be used by policymakers to evaluate climate policies.
Vicki Ekstrom
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
As countries try to protect their domestic air carriers from a European Union proposal that would put a price on the emissions they release over European airspace, the global aviation industry is working to curb those emissions. Industry-wide, air carriers set a goal to be carbon neutral by 2020 and cut their emissions in half by 2050. One way they’ll meet this goal is through the use of biofuels.
“Biofuels release significantly fewer emissions than conventional fuel, and could reduce fuel price volatility for airlines,” says Niven Winchester, an economist at the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the lead author of a study looking at the costs and efficiency of making the switch.
To meet the global targets, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has set its own goal to use one billion gallons of renewable biofuels each year starting in 2018. Because the goal includes U.S. Air Force and Navy carriers, which consume the vast majority of fuel, commercial airlines are responsible for just 35 percent of the target (350 million gallons). In studying this target, Winchester and his co-authors find that while a carbon tax or cap-and-trade system – as the Europeans have employed – would be the most efficient way to reduce emissions, there are ways to cut the costs of using biofuels. The study was published in the December issue of Transportation Research.
“The cost of abating emissions in the aviation sector is higher than in other sectors, so a broad cap-and-trade or carbon price policy that covers a variety of sectors would spread out those costs and allow for improvements in technology and infrastructure,” Winchester says. “But because employing a carbon tax or cap-and-trade appears to be politically infeasible at this time in the U.S., we looked for other ways to reduce emissions.”
The researchers find that growing biofuel crops in rotation with food crops, as research from the U.S. Department of Agriculture suggests, can reduce the cost of biofuels. Pennycress, for example, is a winter annual crop that could potentially be grown in the Midwest in rotation with summer corn and spring soybean crops.
The researchers found that without any policy to constrain emissions, airlines will spend $3.41 per gallon of fuel in 2020, or about $71 billion for the year. Using biofuels that are not grown in rotation with food crops would cost $6.08 per gallon – almost double the cost of conventional fuel. But because the biofuel target for commercial aviation represents only 1.7 percent of total fuel purchased by the industry, the average fuel costs for commercial carriers would increase by only $0.04 per gallon. While a seemingly small change, airlines would spend $830 million more per year on fuel. That price tag becomes significantly smaller when biofuels are grown as rotation crops. In this scenario, the average fuel costs could increase by as little as less than one cent per gallon – raising total annual fuel costs by about $125 million.
Using rotation crops is not only a cheaper way of reaching the renewable target, it also delivers greater bang for the buck in terms of reducing emissions – costing just $50 per ton of COâ‚‚ abated versus $400 per ton without their use. But again, it’s far from the most efficient option: a broad carbon tax or cap-and-trade system. Under the European Union’s Emissions Trading System, COâ‚‚ cost $5 per ton in mid-2013, and is predicted to cost $7 per ton in 2018.
“Because biofuels would account for such a small portion of the total fuel used by commercial aviation, meeting the goal would have only a minor impact on the price of jet fuel. But it would also have a minor impact on emissions,” Winchester says. “A broad cap-and-trade policy or a carbon offsetting scheme, as is currently being promoted by the International Air Transport Association, would reduce emissions at a lower cost by allowing aviation to tap into low-cost abatement options in other industries.”
The study was funded by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.
By Alli Gold Roberts
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
The MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate Project and Emory University held a workshop on Thursday November 21st with researchers and government officials to discuss new research analyzing the impacts of China’s vehicle emissions policies. Researchers worked with policymakers to develop policy scenarios for a new integrated model that will analyze the emissions, air quality, economic, and public health impacts of policy proposals.
A joint team of researchers from Emory University, MIT, and Tsinghua University is carrying out the study. The project is supported by a grant from the Energy Foundation, which provides resources to institutions that most effectively leverage change in transitioning to a sustainable energy future. The Institute for Energy, Environment, and Economy at Tsinghua University hosted the workshop on their Tsinghua campus. At the meeting, policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders engaged in a detailed, candid discussion of policy developments and scenario designs. The first meeting to launch this effort was held in March of 2013.
“This study will help policymakers understand the implications of taking more aggressive steps to control transportation emissions, particularly emissions from road vehicles, which have been outlined in the country’s new air pollution action plan,” says Dr. Valerie Karplus, who leads the MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate Project. “Our framework allows us to quantify the costs and benefits of these measures within a single integrated framework.”
The meeting included representatives from the Chinese Ministry of Finance, Integrated Energy and Climate Policy Bureaus of the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Vehicle Emissions Control Center of the Ministry of Environment, and the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau. The MIT, Tsinghua and Emory researchers used this workshop to communicate their results to policymakers and receive their input in designing policy scenarios for their model.
Using the China Regional Energy Model (C-REM), the group will model the impacts of China’s current and future transportation policies on the national economy and in the individual 30 provinces. The C-REM model was developed as part of the MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate Project over the past two years. Recent modeling efforts include adding detail on the transportation sector and connecting the energy and economic data with a comprehensive inventory of China’s provincial emissions. The team used an atmospheric chemistry model to simulate air quality, including concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. Population-weighted concentrations are then used to simulate impacts on human health and economic activity.
The group plans to test three policy scenarios that will meet the needs of decision makers working on transport policy in China. They currently plan to test a no policy “business as usual” case for comparison, a current policies scenario, and an accelerated scenario that implements a more aggressive transport-focused pollution policy. The aggressive policy scenario focuses mainly on the role of tighter standards for fuel quality and vehicle tailpipe emissions.
“China’s leaders are placing ever greater emphasis on improving air quality and the environment,” says Eri Saikawa, assistant professor at Emory University and principal investigator on the project. “Policymakers are eager to identify specific measures that will help to achieve these goals.”
While building the transportation section of the model, researchers found that freight transport dominates energy use and emissions in most provinces, except the more urbanized regions. In addition, private vehicle ownership is rising rapidly and will have major implications for future emissions.
“China’s leaders have an opportunity to manage this growth by accelerating the adoption of low emissions vehicles nationwide,” says Karplus.
Over the coming months, the group will continue to improve the modeling framework and simulate the three policy scenarios. The final results will be shared with policymakers by the end of 2014.
The next meeting is planned for March of 2014.
By Vicki Ekstrom
Read the 2013 Energy and Climate Outlook
As international negotiators discuss global efforts to confront climate change at the 19th United Nation’s Conference of Parties (COP19), a group of MIT researchers suggest that the current regional efforts may not be enough to avoid the dangerous consequences of rising emissions.
“As our global population swells to more than 10 billion by the end of this century, climate change is one of the forces of global change that will shape how the world feeds, shelters, transports, and otherwise attends to this growing mass of people,” says John Reilly, co-director of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and an author of the 2013 Energy and Climate Outlook. “Our latest Outlook is a window into the future as we view it in 2013, but it is still in our power to change what we see by taking action.”
While much of the Outlook’s projections remain the same as in their 2012 Outlook – highlighting that large or developing countries will play a greater role in shaping our global challenges over time – shifting trends and new and updated data have led to subtle changes. One such trend is the growing use of natural gas and, to a lesser extent, renewable energy. Policies such as the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (and assuming Europe continues on its announced post 2020 policies)helped bring about some of these changes; cutting Europe’s coal generation in 2050 by almost half compared to the last Outlook. The U.S. is also expected to generate 35 percent more renewable energy and 15 percent more natural gas by 2050 compared to the 2012 Outlook.
Taking into account these resource and policy changes, the researchers project global natural gas consumption by 2050 to be 8 percent higher than their 2012 estimates, with China’s consumption alone more than tripling. They also project global consumption of renewable sources by 2050 to be 13 percent higher, while coal and oil usage will sink slightly (3 percent).
Changes in the global energy mix are partly responsible for a 12 percent dip in the projected CO2 emissions by the end of the century. Yet, these emissions are still projected to be 95 percent higher than in 2010. Even with cumulative emissions sinking slightly, the Outlook projects the world will warm by 3 to 6°C by 2100 compared to 2000, with the median forecast at 3.8°C.
“With natural gas becoming more and more important to the global energy mix each year, and recent policy efforts spurring an increased use of renewables, we do believe there will be slightly fewer emissions than we originally forecasted,” says Sergey Paltsev, an author of the study and the assistant director for economic research at the Joint Program on Global Change. “But, while growing at a slightly lesser rate, emissions are still increasing, and if they continue to grow we might experience very harmful consequences.”
Building on the models used for their 2012 Outlook, the researchers identify the hottest and coldest regions and the range of uncertainty. They find that generally the polar areas display the most warming, with Northern Canada and Siberia warming between 6 and 12°C by 2100. Meanwhile, North America, Europe and Asia can expect temperatures to warm by as much as 4 to 8°C, and Africa, Australia and South America can expect temperature increases between 3 and 7°C. The researchers also warn there could be very damaging consequences from an increase in extreme precipitation events, such as floods. Their analysis shows most land areas will become wetter, while over the ocean and Tropics a few regions could become drier.
“Taking into account the vast uncertainty in climate projections, even in our most optimistic scenario we see that these changes will surely impact food and water resources, among other changes,” says Erwan Monier, an author of the study and a scientist at the Joint Program on Global Change.
As in the 2012 Outlook, the researchers emphasize that further cuts in developed countries would be useful. But only 13 percent of emissions are expected to come from these countries by 2100, meaning their efforts will have less of an impact over time as the share of emissions from other nations increases. Emissions from countries outside the developed world could grow by almost 150 percent by the end of the century.
Reilly, Paltsev and nine others based their projections on the United Nations' estimate that the world's population will grow to more than 10 billion by 2100. Using their computer modeling system to project how this growth would affect our energy and climate, they then incorporated pledges made by G20 nations at international meetings in Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancun in 2010 to cap emissions by 2020.
“As difficult as the progress made in Copenhagen and Cancun was to achieve, far more effort is needed to limit greenhouse gas concentrations to levels that avoid dangerous climatic consequences,” the authors write, stressing the importance of the ongoing international talks.
Global population is expected to rise from about 7 billion today to close to 11 billion by the end of the century. This growing population will increase the demand for food, putting further strain on global land and water resources already feeling the pressures of climate change. Responding to the urgency of these challenges, the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change brought together experts from academia and industry at a food symposium on November 5th, “Feeding the World without Consuming the Planet.”
MIT Vice President Claude Canizares joined Joint Program on Global Change Co-Director Ron Prinn in opening the event. He highlighted MIT’s dedication to expanding research on agriculture, as urged by President Obama’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology in a report published last December. He also emphasized the Institute’s long history of forming industry collaborations to confront the world’s greatest challenges.
“MIT’s 150-year history of being devoted to the industrial arts makes us very comfortable to work closely and in real partnership with industry. I can’t think of a more important problem for us to tackle,” said Canizares at the event, which included experts from Cargill, Coca-Cola Co., Mosaic Company, Weyerhaeuser Company and Bunge Limited.
Cargill Vice Chairman Paul Conway also gave opening remarks outlining the challenges of increased food consumption, accelerating urbanization, demands for biofuels and variability in climate.
“We see climate change as a critical risk. We have to prepare ourselves to make sure we adapt,” said Conway, who also encouraged additional research in science and technology. “To ignore some tools that are available to us that have had a significant impact—particularly in terms of the reduction of chemicals—would be foolish.”
Agricultural Resources and Inputs
Joint Program Co-Director John Reilly kicked off the first session of the event with an overview of MIT’s work on modeling water stress, resource demands, variability in temperature and precipitation patterns, and the economic impacts of climate change on food prices.
“We need to better understand local and regional climate changes and extremes to improve agriculture,” said Reilly, of which the Joint Program is already studying with their Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) — a tool that connects Earth and human systems to better predict future climate changes.
Industry is also doing its part to maximize yields and adapt to climate change. Reilly’s session focused on two key industries in particular: forestry and fertilizers.
As fertilizer companies meet growing productivity demands, they must focus on improving resource inefficiencies and misallocations of fertilizer in the developing world, said Michael Rahm of the Mosaic Company. Meanwhile, timberlands management could help mitigate climate change, according to Robert Ewing of the Weyerhaeuser Company. Weyerhaeuser is also working with Chevron to research how timber scraps could be used in biofuel production.
Agricultural Commodity Markets, Food and Consumers
The second session of the event progressed up the food production chain and looked at the impacts on prices and trade.
Describing the challenge of growing food prices, Professor Thomas Hertel from Purdue University said that there are many factors to watch including biofuel expansion, oil prices, technical capabilities, drops in research and development, and climate change. Hertel also explained income rises in the developing world will encourage diets to change and require more land intensive agriculture. Improved efficiency in trade and technology will be essential in meeting the demands of growing affluent societies.
Stewart Lindsey of Bunge Limited agreed with the importance of trade, “It plays a very important role in the world,” he said. “It really is a mechanism that gives deficit countries—countries that don’t have enough food to ensure security—the ability to do that in a pinch.”
Only 15 percent of global grains and oilseeds are exported today. By expanding global trade of agriculture, Lindsey suggested we should urge countries to be more efficient by growing and exporting foods based on their locally available resources and climate conditions.
As the food and agriculture industry continues to prepare for climate change and increased food demands by supporting agricultural trading, optimized yields and sustainable agricultural practices, Reilly emphasized the important role of academia in such efforts.
“We look forward to continuing this conversation with collaborators in industry,” Reilly said, “in order to improve our understanding of all these challenges, and find the best ways to adapt to our changing climate and resource demands.”
Watch videos from the event here: http://globalchange.mit.edu/foodsymposium
Read about our coverage on social media here: http://storify.com/MITGlobalChange/feeding-the-world-without-consuming-the-planet
China’s unprecedented economic growth has created a more affluent society that demands more energy. The current growth is leading to more emissions from power plants and industries, which threaten human health, the economy and the environment. Government officials recognize the severity of the problem and have taken action through a series of policy initiatives in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2010-2015).
“Power plants, factories and vehicles have all increased sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution, which cause smog and acid rain and lead to health effects such as heart disease, asthma and shortened lifespans,” says Kyung-Min Nam, a researcher in MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. “The increased stringency of new pollution controls reflects a growing recognition of the public health, economic and environmental costs of air pollution in China.”
SO2 and NOx are byproducts of the burning of fossil fuels and other activities that cause CO2 emissions, so limiting these pollutants can also reduce CO2 emissions.
Nam and his colleagues wanted to research effective ways for policymakers to reduce air pollution and mitigate carbon emissions, given the potential interactive effects of these policies.
In a study published this week in Global Environmental Change, they evaluated the unintended CO2 emissions reductions in the new SO2 and NOx regulations in China’s 12th Five-Year Plan. They found that the tighter SO2 and NOx regulations would reduce CO2 enough to allow China to surpass its 2015 goals—by a substantial margin.
“It is clear that the unintended benefits of the regulations are substantial and would allow the government to improve air quality, while also cutting the most potent greenhouse gas. We have also learned that carbon emissions may not rise as high as some forecasts suggest, if concerns about conventional pollutants lead to air pollution reduction policies,” Nam says.
In the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government committed to reduce SOâ‚‚ emissions by 8 percent and NOâ‚“ emissions by 10 percent from 2010 levels. In addition, the government established a target to reduce CO2 intensity by 17 percent from the 2010 level. The researchers found that by 2015 the SO2 and NOx regulations could reduce CO2 intensity by 20 percent, exceeding China’s official goal.
Valerie Karplus, a co-author of the study and the director of the MIT Joint Program’s China Energy and Climate Project, says, “Considering that the current CO2 target can be attained by the secondary benefits of the SO2 and NOx regulations, policymakers would do well to coordinate the regulatory efforts. Currently, they have room to adopt more ambitious CO2 reduction policies, but the impact will hinge on effective implementation.”
The researchers also estimate that the regulations have the potential to save the Chinese economy $3 billion, the estimated costs of compliance with the CO2 intensity targets.
“We find that China can meet its short-term pollution goals and still expand the use of coal. However, continued use of coal will ultimately make future emissions reductions excessively expensive. The government can achieve greater cost savings for industry by choosing policies that require earlier action and investment in long-term reduction goals,” Nam says. “This emphasizes the need for a forward-looking approach that anticipates more significant reductions in the future and includes cleaner technologies in the near term.”
Nam plans to continue this research by extending the modeling to the U.S. He will compare the unintended benefits of both pollution and climate regulations in China and the U.S. and quantify the interactive effects in both directions.
Alli Gold Roberts
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Earlier this year, China took a major step in combating climate change by launching a pilot CO2 emissions trading system within some of its provinces. This is the first step in a series of planned reforms and part of a larger effort to reduce CO2 intensity by 17% in 2015, relative to 2010 levels. 
In a study coming out tomorrow in the November issue of Energy Economics, a group of researchers from MIT and Tsinghua University test the efficiency and equity of the provincial approach by comparing it to a national carbon-trading program. They find that while China can achieve its reduction goal with either a provincial or national level trading system, the national system encourages reductions where they cost the least—resulting in less welfare loss.
“Leaders in China want environmental protection measures to be fair to all regions and households. They also want to choose policies that will be the most cost effective,” says Da Zhang, the lead author of the study and a PhD student with Tsinghua University. “We hope that our research will help policymakers understand the distribution of the burden of alternative policy options, and help them to determine the most cost effective method of reducing CO2.”
Zhang and his coauthors are part of the Tsinghua-MIT China Energy and Climate Project, a collaborative effort between the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the Institute for Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China.
The international team finds that imposing CO2 targets at the provincial level results in a consumption loss that is about 20 percent greater than if targets are achieved through a national system. Zhang explains that this is because in a provincial level system, industries may miss out on low-cost opportunities in other provinces and be forced to invest in more expensive abatement measures.
“In contrast, a national target creates incentives to make reductions where they are the cheapest,” says Zhang. “Though we realize there are challenges in implementing a national system, especially when provincial governments are currently accountable for CO2 reductions in their communities.”
To investigate the impacts of this policy, the researchers built a model they call the China Regional Energy Model, or C-REM. The C-REM disaggregates China’s 30 provinces and details the entire energy system. The model also includes global trade data to measure the interactions between China and the global economy.
“This work and the model our team developed are the first steps in our analysis of a broad range of energy and climate policy proposals in China,” says Valerie Karplus, co-author of the study and the director of the Tsinghua-MIT China Energy and Climate Project. “The analysis we produced reflects intensive exchange and learning within our integrated research team.”
She notes future analysis will also include comparing different designs of emissions trading programs and measuring the additional or unintended impacts of air pollution polices.
Anthropogenic emissions that lead to air pollution (particulate matter and ozone) are also large contributors to climate change. Unlike the well-mixed greenhouse gases, the spatial distribution of these emissions affects their climate impact. A better understanding of the role of aerosols and ozone in contributing to historical and projected future climate change provides insight into the relative importance of air pollutants versus well-mixed greenhouse gases, the role of uncertainties in forcing in creating uncertainties in regional climate projections, and the balance between efforts to improve air quality and mitigate climate change.
In his presentation "How Air Pollution Affects Climate and What We Can Do About It", this year's Kendall Lecturer Drew Shindell, a senior scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, discussed recent progress in understanding the role of aerosols and ozone and the implications for our understanding of climate sensitivity, of the recent slowdown in global warming, and of the benefits to both climate and human health that can be obtained by taking action to reduce air pollutant emissions.
Dr. Shindell who taught atmospheric chemistry at Columbia University for more than a decade, earned his Bachelor's degree at UC Berkeley and his PhD at Stony Brook University, both in Physics. His research concerns natural and human drivers of climate change, linkages between air quality and climate change, and the interface between climate change science and policy. He has been an author on more than 100 peer-reviewed publications and received awards from Scientific American, NASA, and the NSF. He has testified on climate issues before both houses of the US Congress, the UNFCCC and the World Bank, developed a climate change course with the American Museum of Natural History, and made numerous appearances in newspapers, on radio, and on TV as part of his public outreach efforts. He chaired the 2011 Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone produced by the United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization. Most recently he was a Coordinating Lead Author on the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and chairs the Scientific Advisory Panel to the Climate and Clean Air Coalition of nations.
The Henry W. Kendall Memorial Lecture Series honors the memory of Professor Henry Kendall (1926-1999), a 1990 Nobel Laureate, a longtime member of MIT’s physics faculty, and an ardent environmentalist. A founding member and chair of the Union of Concerned Scientists, he played a leading role in organizing scientific community statements on global problems, including the World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity in 1992 and the Call for Action at the Kyoto Climate Summit in 1997.
Following the lecture there was a reception in the Green Building.
As the U.S. and other large nations experience the benefits of a natural gas boom, smaller countries – from Tanzania to Cyprus – are hoping to reap the rewards too and use the resource to spur their economies. But in a new study, MIT researchers warn them to proceed with caution.
“While natural gas is often cheaper than oil and gives off fewer emissions, developing the resource comes with risks, especially for smaller nations,” says Sergey Paltsev, an author of the study and a principal research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative. “The cost for these smaller nations makes up a larger portion of their economies, so before spending the money, they need to have the proper expectations.”
In collaboration with the Cyprus Institute, the MIT researchers take an independent look at the economics around developing the resource using Cyprus as an example. They find that it will take the country about five years to put their natural gas resource to use, and the required investments will make up to a quarter of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
“That’s a substantial amount of a country’s economy dependent on a resource that has proven to be unpredictable in the past,” says Paltsev, who is also the assistant director for economic research at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. “Natural gas development is so new to such regions, and the global gas market is changing so rapidly, that there’s a large amount of uncertainty.”
This is the message the researchers will bring to a November meeting with Cyprus decision-makers, meant to help the leaders plan a path forward with realistic expectations in mind.
The Case of Cyprus
What’s happening in Cyprus is a good model for other countries like it that are exploring natural gas, according to Paltsev.
The small nation has been teetering back from a near collapse of its banking industry and searching for revenue. When a major natural gas reserve was discovered off its coast two years ago, Cyprus leaders saw it as a golden opportunity.
The latest estimate of the resource at that site, given earlier this month, shows about 5 trillion cubic feet of gas. To put that into context, the researchers cite a 2013 BP report showing the global supply of natural gas to be about 6,600 trillion cubic feet, with Russia’s reserves alone being 1,160 trillion cubic feet.
“These numbers tell us that, while this is a significant find for a country the size of Cyprus, it’s only a small fraction of the global resources,” says Francis O’Sullivan, the director of research for the MIT Energy Initiative. “Most likely, Cyprus will never be a major player in the global gas markets, but that doesn’t mean natural gas can’t benefit the country’s economy if developed properly.”
One trillion cubic feet of natural gas is enough to meet the needs of 5 million households for 15 years, according to the American Gas Association. With the population of Cyprus being just around a million, the study shows that Cyprus has enough natural gas to power the country for nearly a century – while significantly reducing its use of foreign oil.
LNG versus a Pipeline
An ample resource for domestic use, the Cyprus government has made plans to build a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant and export the resource to such place as Europe and Israel.
LNG has been the preferred option over building a pipeline because of political tensions in the area. The island has been divided since the mid-1970s, with Turkey occupying the northern half.
While a clear political maneuver, building an LNG terminal would also create jobs and raise revenue. Depending on the tax scheme, it may raise $1.5 billion in taxes. Still, it would cost about $6 billion to build, for a country that has a GDP of about $25 billion. The cost of building an LNG terminal is far more than the cost of building a pipeline, though LNG offers greater flexibility to adjust production to changing natural gas prices and market supplies – perhaps outweighing the upfront costs.
“The discovery of natural gas has created exciting opportunities for Cyprus and could transform the country’s energy system and position in the region,” O’Sullivan says. “But the cost of developing the resource makes up about a quarter of the country’s economy. That’s not insignificant, and it’s a major risk if it fails.”
O’Sullivan and Paltsev warn that even projects that start out having clear economic gains can become less profitable because of poor technical planning and execution or bureaucratic and regulatory delays.
“Prices change, projects get delayed, overrun costs pile up. These are all unforeseen risks that can come up and must be properly mitigated,” Paltsev says.
The study, funded entirely by the Cyprus Research Promotion Foundation, is part of a larger report that will further take into account the changing dynamics of the regional and global gas markets – giving a comprehensive view of the implications for the long-term development of natural gas in Cyprus and other like nations. The researchers expect to finish that larger report in August 2014.
Photo Credit: ©iStock.com/MsLightBox
The Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), meets this week in Boston for their biannual meeting and to celebrate their 35th anniversary.
International leaders have gathered this week in Kumamoto, Japan to sign a landmark treaty to curb the use of mercury. The treaty, named the Minamata Convention after a Japanese city where serious health damage occurred from mercury pollution in the mid-20th Century, is both wide-ranging and legally binding. MIT researcher Noelle Selin is attending the conference and presenting research on the impacts of mercury pollution and the importance of policies to control it.
Selin was part of an expert panel discussing the science of and policies regarding mercury pollution this weekend, hosted by the National Institute of Minamata Disease and the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.
Learn more about the UNEP event: United Nations Convention Tackling Hazardous Mercury To Open for Signature
Learn more about Dr. Selin’s mercury research:
Will the New Global Mercury Treaty be Effective?
MIT researcher Noelle Selin assesses the challenges of implementing the first global mercury treaty.
MIT students participate in the final mercury talks resulting in an international treaty.
Strategies to Reduce Mercury Revealed Ahead of International Talks
Harvard, MIT researchers map future trends of mercury and ways to reduce it on eve of international negotiations.