Risk Analysis
Assessing Future Risks from Global Change
To quantify risks at the global scale requires large ensembles of model simulations, and thus a numerically efficient model. For this purpose we use a version of the IGSM framework with a two-dimensional atmosphere and ocean. For regional and other high-resolution studies, the ocean, atmosphere and land systems are resolved in three dimensions. The IGSM framework is designed to address a wide range of quantifiable, policy-relevant questions that involve the integration of natural and social sciences, such as:
- What methods can be used to quantify global and regional risks of environmental change?
- What are the advantages and risks of waiting for better scientific understanding of such change?
- How does uncertainty about future climate or climate policy affect near-term investment decision?
To learn how your organization can benefit from funding our research, please visit the Joint Program Sponsorship page.
Key Papers on Risk Analysis
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Representing socio-economic uncertainty in human system models, Morris et al., Joint Program Report 347 (2021)
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A consistent framework for uncertainty in coupled human-Earth system models, Morris et al., Joint Program Report 349 (2021).
- Probabilistic projections of the future climate for the world and the continental USA Sokolov et al., Joint Program Report 320, 15 p. (2017).
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Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change: A Hybridized Approach Schlosser et al., Journal of Climate, 26(10): 3394-3414 (2012)
Publications
Strzepek, K. and Schlosser, C.A., contributors, Climate Risk Stress Test ((flooding analysis and climate-risk scenarios) (2025)
South African Reserve Bank
Qiu, J., S. Ravela and K. Emanuel (2025)
One Earth, (doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101273)
Morris, J., A. Sokolov, J. Reilly, A. Libardoni, C.S. Forest, S. Paltsev, C. A. Schlosser, R. Prinn and H. Jacoby (2025)
Nature Communications, 16(2703) (doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57897-1)
News + Media
MIT campus gathers with VP for Energy and Climate Evelyn Wang to explore the Climate Project at MIT. CS3-affiliated grad students Hannah Rajput and Chris Womack present research demos. (MIT News)
MIT’s Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy brings together natural and social scientists for an integrated approach to climate challenges (MIT Spectrum)
With projected global warming, the frequency of extreme storms will ramp up by the end of the century, finds new study co-authored by CS3-affiliated principal research scientist Sai Ravela (MIT News) (Coverage: Independent)
Research Projects
People
