Risk Analysis
Assessing Future Risks from Global Change
To quantify risks at the global scale requires large ensembles of model simulations, and thus a numerically efficient model. For this purpose we use a version of the IGSM framework with a two-dimensional atmosphere and ocean. For regional and other high-resolution studies, the ocean, atmosphere and land systems are resolved in three dimensions. The IGSM framework is designed to address a wide range of quantifiable, policy-relevant questions that involve the integration of natural and social sciences, such as:
- What methods can be used to quantify global and regional risks of environmental change?
- What are the advantages and risks of waiting for better scientific understanding of such change?
- How does uncertainty about future climate or climate policy affect near-term investment decision?
To learn how your organization can benefit from funding our research, please visit the Joint Program Sponsorship page.
Key Papers on Risk Analysis
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Representing socio-economic uncertainty in human system models, Morris et al., Joint Program Report 347 (2021)
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A consistent framework for uncertainty in coupled human-Earth system models, Morris et al., Joint Program Report 349 (2021).
- Probabilistic projections of the future climate for the world and the continental USA Sokolov et al., Joint Program Report 320, 15 p. (2017).
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Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change: A Hybridized Approach Schlosser et al., Journal of Climate, 26(10): 3394-3414 (2012)
Publications
Strzepek, K. and Schlosser, C.A., contributors, Climate Risk Stress Test ((flooding analysis and climate-risk scenarios) (2025)
South African Reserve Bank
Qiu, J., S. Ravela and K. Emanuel (2025)
One Earth, (doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101273)
News + Media
In GTAP webinar, MIT CS3 Principal Research Scientist Jennifer Morris presents findings from Nature Climate Change study aimed at better understanding/modeling the climate/economy nexus
In this Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) webinar, MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy Principal Research Scientist Jennifer Morr
MIT CS3 researchers co-author chapter on emissions and concentration scenarios (Springer Cham, Chapter 16, pp. 163-176)
Research Projects
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