Risk Analysis
Assessing Future Risks from Global Change
To quantify risks at the global scale requires large ensembles of model simulations, and thus a numerically efficient model. For this purpose we use a version of the IGSM framework with a two-dimensional atmosphere and ocean. For regional and other high-resolution studies, the ocean, atmosphere and land systems are resolved in three dimensions. The IGSM framework is designed to address a wide range of quantifiable, policy-relevant questions that involve the integration of natural and social sciences, such as:
- What methods can be used to quantify global and regional risks of environmental change?
- What are the advantages and risks of waiting for better scientific understanding of such change?
- How does uncertainty about future climate or climate policy affect near-term investment decision?
To learn how your organization can benefit from funding our research, please visit the Joint Program Sponsorship page.
Key Papers on Risk Analysis
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Representing socio-economic uncertainty in human system models, Morris et al., Joint Program Report 347 (2021) 
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A consistent framework for uncertainty in coupled human-Earth system models, Morris et al., Joint Program Report 349 (2021). 
- Probabilistic projections of the future climate for the world and the continental USA Sokolov et al., Joint Program Report 320, 15 p. (2017).
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Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change: A Hybridized Approach Schlosser et al., Journal of Climate, 26(10): 3394-3414 (2012) 
Publications
Strzepek, K. and Schlosser, C.A., contributors, Climate Risk Stress Test ((flooding analysis and climate-risk scenarios) (2025)
 South African Reserve Bank
Qiu, J., S. Ravela and K. Emanuel (2025)
 One Earth, (doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101273)
News + Media
In this Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) webinar, MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy Principal Research Scientist Jennifer Morr
In GTAP webinar, MIT CS3 Principal Research Scientist Jennifer Morris presents findings from Nature Climate Change study aimed at better understanding/modeling the climate/economy nexus
MIT CS3 researchers co-author chapter on emissions and concentration scenarios (Springer Cham, Chapter 16, pp. 163-176)
Research Projects
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