Risk Analysis

Assessing Future Risks from Global Change

To quantify risks at the global scale requires large ensembles of model simulations, and thus a numerically efficient model. For this purpose we use a version of the IGSM framework with a two-dimensional atmosphere and ocean. For regional and other high-resolution studies, the ocean, atmosphere and land systems are resolved in three dimensions. The IGSM framework is designed to address a wide range of quantifiable, policy-relevant questions that involve the integration of natural and social sciences, such as:

• What methods can be used to quantify global and regional risks of environmental change?
• What are the advantages and risks of waiting for better scientific understanding of such change?
• How does uncertainty about future climate or climate policy affect near-term investment decision?

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