Multi-sector Assessment of decarbonization Transitions, Risks and Impacts across scales (MATRIX)
Sponsor: Schmidt Sciences - Decarbonization and Energy Virtual Institute (DEVI)
Partners: University of Cape Town; Basque Centre for Climate Change; Pennsylvania State University; Industrial Economics, Inc; University of Oxford
Our highly-qualified, collaborative cross-disciplinary team will significantly push the frontier of integrated assessment modeling to advance understanding of multi-sector feedbacks and implications of different decarbonization pathways under uncertainty, informing decision-making at multiple levels. Our economy-wide project addresses specific knowledge gaps related to the goals of DEVI: 1) understanding real-world dimensions of decarbonization that affect nonlinear dynamics, feedbacks and tipping points; 2) modeling connections and feedbacks across sectors and scales to capture the broad implications of decarbonization; 3) representing multiple levels of decision-making; 4) balancing rigorous treatment of uncertainty with model complexity and resolution; and 5) informing decarbonization decision-making with multiple objectives. We will overcome these gaps by developing the MATRIX framework—next-generation integrated human-climate-impacts modeling that is open-source flexible and modular, cuts across multiple sectors and scales, includes a broad range of linkages and feedbacks, strategically employs AI/ML, and incorporates cutting-edge uncertainty techniques designed to inform decision-making. In the process, we will advance individual model components and methods and generate new datasets and insights. While the proposed framework can be flexibly applied to any country, we will demonstrate our approach by focusing on two regional contexts: (1) India (a major emerging economy and emitter), and (2) a group of small developing economies in the Zambezi region of Africa (Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi) which are connected to one another (e.g., through the Zambezi River and South African Power Pool) and thus benefit from joint analysis, and also have different decarbonization challenges and priorities compared to larger emerging economies. Our approach will advance understanding and provide new insights, informing policy and investment decisions. Engagement with country stakeholders, and development of user-interface tools, will ensure decision-relevance. The project will also benefit the scientific community by demonstrating novel approaches, setting a new standard for integrated assessment modeling, and providing tools/methods that can be used by other integrated models/analysis.
