Analytics of complex water, energy, food systems for strategic decisions under environmental change (Invited)

Abstract: A key challenge in analysis of interconnected water, energy, and food systems is a lack of approaches that can yield meaningful results. In many cases, important factors are omitted or are highly simplified, and model results lose realism for policy. Here, a network modeling approach is described that enables representation of complex nature-society interactions and is well-suited for studying water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) nexus challenges. A network is formulated with nodes representing humans, technological, and environmental elements, and links representing interactions, mediated by institutions and knowledge elements, between a pair of elements. Thus, five types of elements (human, technological, environmental, institutional, and knowledge) in a system, deemed essential for studying sustainability-relevant challenges, are incorporated in the model. The interactions are first described in text, followed by derivation of a quantitative, binary network model that allows for computing metrics relating to network structure and properties such as resilience and adaptability. The network representation enables assessment of cascading effects and unintended consequences (of an intervention) that are often challenging to assess with traditional integrated assessment models. The application of the method is demonstrated for the Indus river basin of Pakistan. In a first case, interactions between food and water security in the extensively irrigated, and flood prone, region are analyzed using a network of 69 nodes and 862 links to identify strategies for simultaneously improving food production and flood protection as climate change alters temperature and precipitation patterns. In a second case, energy transition for decarbonization is analyzed by quantifying network structural change and implications on food production. Preliminary results reveal potential unintended consequences for domestic agricultural equipment supply chains. Finally, in a third case, implications of forecasting systems (including satellites data and in-situ sensors) on food and energy production enhancement and flood disaster mitigation are evaluated. Overall, the results demonstrate that network-centric analytics of the WEFE nexus can reveal insights for strategic decisions in dynamic contexts.