Identifying Key Uncertainties and Drivers of Future Resource Security Outcomes through a Multisector Scenario Ensemble

Abstract
Food, energy, and water security are key criteria in analyses of complex human-Earth system interactions but are rarely analyzed jointly in scenario analysis of global change. 

Here, we generate a scenario ensemble centered around these outcomes using a global-scale multisector model that simulates critical interactions across multiple sectors. We consider a wide range of future uncertainties in both physical and societal factors, including population, economics, alternative scenarios of future carbon intensity, and land conservation. We evaluate each scenario by computing both regional and subregional resource security outcomes and identify the uncertainties and key drivers that lead to the outcomes of interest. 

We find that lower-income subgroups face higher burdens and more uncertain outcomes, and that drivers of resource security outcomes are heterogeneous across regions. Ultimately, our approach can help identify scenarios that can facilitate high-priority research on resource security outcomes, especially in multisector contexts.

Plain Language Summary
Future changes in population, food production, and energy prices can create challenges that affect people's resource security. These challenges can impact the share of income that must be spent on food, household energy, or water, especially for those with lower incomes. Therefore, we need to explore how future resource security for different income groups may change under different conditions. We generate projections of how global changes, such as in population, gross domestic product, and technological advancement, may influence future living conditions. 

The results from this study show that both the living conditions and their uncertainty are different for people with lower incomes compared to those with higher incomes. Depending on regions and future assumptions, the share of income spent on food of the lowest income population can be as high as 49.6% compared to 5.5% of the highest income population's share. While income plays a major role in determining the relationship between regional food and energy affordability, other factors like geographic location and how energy or land is used also influence the joint outcomes. 

The findings from this study can help regional decision makers better understand how people's quality of life might change in the future and what factors influence it.