Diverse consumption patterns in countries nearing social and climate goals challenge their use as role models

Abstract: Modern societies face the dual challenge of ensuring populations’ well-being while staying within the Earth’s limits. Previous studies have identified countries that come close to achieving both objectives, and later research has suggested that their consumption patterns could serve as models for allocating future environmental budgets. This relies on the assumption that such countries share a common and reproducible consumption pattern, which has not been empirically verified. This study tests this hypothesis, examining greenhouse gas emissions and household spending in 139 countries using the GLORIA multi-regional input-output dataset. Absolute thresholds for emissions and social performance, defined via a novel Needs Satisfaction Index, classify countries into four groups. 

Only four countries meet both criteria and are thus classified as “model” countries. Within this group, sectoral contributions (mobility, housing, food, services, consumables) vary widely; for example, food spending ranges from 14% to 33%, with associated emission from 13% to 41%. No clear patterns in spending or emissions emerged for the other three groups. Sensitivity analysis shows that adjusting climate and social thresholds changes group composition but does not reduce within-group variation. 

These findings suggest that countries nearing social and climate goals do not provide a consistent consumption template for others. Instead, sustainability strategies may need to be context-specific, shaped by local cultural, regulatory, infrastructural, and geographic conditions. However, this conclusion may be influenced by current data limitations. As the accuracy and granularity of national environmental data increase, future studies could resume the search for common patterns across (nearly) sustainable countries.