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Royal Dutch Shell is creating a new unit specially for renewables and alternative energy, but it continues to insist that its current business of burning hydrocarbons is under no threat from global policies to mitigate climate change.

In a new working paper titled "Carbon pricing under binding political constraints," MIT Institute for Data, Systems and Society doctoral candidate Jesse Jenkins and Sloan School of Management Assistant Professor Valerie Karplus discuss the political obstacles facing efforts to price carbon emissions and outline a set of starting points that are both politically palatable and steps toward effective policies to curb climate change.

MIT President L. Rafael Reif today announced the official launch of the MIT Campaign for a Better World, a comprehensive fundraising initiative that will amplify the Institute's distinctive strength in education, research, and innovation, and will advance MIT’s work on some of the world's biggest challenges.

MIT has a history of discovery, knowledge creation, and innovation. Through the MIT Campaign for a Better World, MIT aims to extend that track record, raising $5 billion in support of efforts that, as announced by Reif, will enable a future where fundamental science unlocks new knowledge; where climate change yields to climate action; where clean energy is universal; where everyone can count on clean water and nourishing food; where we detect disease before it has symptoms; where Alzheimer's itself is just a memory; where good ideas don’t languish in the lab but flourish in the marketplace; where daring companies create thriving industries and achieve lasting progress; where prosperity is measured not in dollars alone but in the currency of art, culture, and understanding; where quality education is radically more available; and where we offer the world's undiscovered talent a digital path to a creative future.

To ensure that MIT continues to attract a community of exceptionally talented students and faculty, and provides the infrastructure their pioneering work demands, the Campaign is also committed to strengthening the Institute's core — increasing resources for undergraduate financial aid, graduate fellowships, and professorships; reimagining residential living and educational spaces; and developing innovative research facilities such as MIT.nano.

"Humanity faces urgent challenges — challenges whose solutions depend on marrying advanced technical and scientific capabilities with a deep understanding of the world's political, cultural, and economic complexities," Reif said.

"We launch the Campaign for a Better World to rise to those challenges and accelerate positive change. In this effort, we seek the support of enthusiastic partners who share our sense of mission and infinite possibility — including our remarkable alumni, who do the great work of MIT in the world every day," he continued. "Together, through this Campaign, we will give the brilliant minds and hands of the MIT community the fuel and the focus to make inspiring progress for the world."

The Campaign is guided by six priority areas that span the full breadth of MIT:

• Discovery Science: Transforming our world through fundamental scientific research
• Health of the Planet: Addressing critical environmental and sustainability challenges facing humankind through science, technology, design, management, and policy
• Human Health: Defining the future of health through advances in basic science and engineering — informed by expertise in disciplines such as management, economics, and political science
• Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Accelerating the path from idea to impact
• Teaching, Learning, and Living: Reimagining education for the 21st-century learner
• The MIT Core: Attracting extraordinary students and faculty, and providing them with the resources they need to thrive

"The MIT Campaign for a Better World represents an important and historic undertaking," said Julie A. Lucas, MIT's vice president for resource development. "Its priorities transcend disciplines and reflect the breadth and depth of the Institute's commitment to bringing real change to the world. This is an extraordinary moment in the life of MIT."

As of the end of the first quarter of 2016, MIT has raised over $2.6 billion toward the Campaign goal, with gifts coming from more than 77,000 alumni and friends. The Institute's most recent comprehensive fundraising campaign ran from 1997 to 2004.

"This Campaign will have far-reaching positive implications for the world at large," said Robert B. Millard '73, chair of the MIT Corporation. "It is an opportunity to re-inspire, reenergize, and recommit the MIT community to our shared vision and values, while amplifying the power of our students, faculty, and staff to shape the future by providing them with the resources they need to do their best work.”

For more information on the MIT Campaign for a Better World, visit betterworld.mit.edu and follow #MITBetterWorld. 

Joint Program research highlighted in the MIT Campaign for a Better World:

https://betterworld.mit.edu/better-climate-predictions-more-resilient-agriculture/

https://betterworld.mit.edu/the-nature-of-hurricanes/

https://betterworld.mit.edu/true-costs-energy-policy/

https://betterworld.mit.edu/the-oceanclimate-connection/

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/campaign/mit-sloan-campaign-priorities/health-of-the-planet/

To mark Earth Day, leaders from more than 165 countries are expected to gather at the United Nations tomorrow for a ceremony to sign the Paris climate agreement, reached last December. Under the historic deal, each country has set targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with the ultimate goal to keep the rise in global temperatures below 2°C above the preindustrial average.

However, new research suggests that the emissions caps might not be low enough to prevent damaging impacts for parts of the world that are vulnerable to climate change. A study presented today at the 2016 European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting in Vienna, Austria, shows big differences between a 2°C warmer world and a 1.5°C warmer world.

A 2°C temperature increase by 2100 would mean that all coral reef ecosystems in tropical regions would be at risk of degradation due to coral bleaching. The study, also published today in Earth System Dynamics, shows that tropical regions would be especially hard hit by a 2°C temperature increase. Warm spells would last up to 50% longer, resulting in corn and wheat yields half what they would be under a 1.5°C increase, the researchers found. What’s more, a 2°C temperature increase by 2100 would also mean that all coral reef ecosystems in tropical regions would be at risk of degradation due to coral bleaching, according to the study led by Carl Schleussner of Climate Analytics in Germany.

Greater Reductions Needed

To limit temperature increases to just 1.5°C, countries may need to strengthen their emission reduction pledges significantly. Even if the current Paris commitments are met and extended beyond 2030, global temperatures are on track to rise 3°C above the preindustrial average, said Massachusetts Institute of Technology climate scientist Erwan Monier.

He collaborated in another study, also presented at the EGU meeting this week, that combined a human activity model with a climate model to look at five different global warming scenarios through 2100. His team found that there is only a 5% probability that the Paris agreement will keep global temperatures below 2°C, even with the most optimistic outlook.

Nonetheless, Monier told Eos that it is still possible to limit temperatures to 2°C by the end of the century. However, that would require major changes in policy. “We’re not on that path right now, but it’s totally achievable,” he said. “I think most people know some policy tools that would get us there, like a carbon tax. But there’s unwillingness to actually use those.”

Possible 2.7°C Rise Scrutinized

Other researchers have focused on tipping points for severe climate impacts that may lie beyond 2°C. Climate scientist Robert DeConto of the University of Massachusetts Amherst published a paper in Nature last month that found that the Antarctic ice sheet would barely contribute to sea level rise if the average global temperature rise stayed below 2°C. Since writing that paper, DeConto has applied his same model to a temperature increase of 2.7°C. At a press conference at the EGU meeting today, DeConto explained that his preliminary results suggest that the Antarctic ice sheet would contribute about 80 centimeters of potential sea level rise in a 2.7°C warmer world. DeConto chose to scrutinize the effects of a 2.7°C increase because the Climate Action Tracker had warned ahead of the Paris agreement that the world is headed for that level of warming by 2100 even if governments fully implement their climate action pledges.

Glacier Loss Will Continue Under Cuts

Even a modest 1.5°C increase would still result in about half of glaciers melting. Another study finds that regardless of the success of the Paris agreement, some damaging aspects of climate change can’t be stopped. Glacier melt will continue to accelerate, explained Ben Marzeion, a climate scientist at the University of Bremen in Germany. He presented his results during an earlier session at the EGU meeting. If it were scientifically possible for global warming to stop today, glaciers would still lose 30% of their mass. Even a modest 1.5°C increase, according to Marzeion, would still result in about half of glaciers melting.

—Megan Gannon, Freelance Writer; email: megan.i.gannon@gmail.com

© 2016. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0

Photo: Men and children withdrawing water for irrigation in the Dogon plateau (Mali) during a sandstorm day. New research finds that warm spells in tropical regions will likely last 50% longer if warming exceeds the global preindustrial average temperature by 2°C rather than by 1.5°C. (Credit: Velio Coviello via imaggeo.egu.eu, CC BY-SA 3.0)