News + Media

New York Times, May 18, 2011
By DAVID LEONHARDT

Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney, economists at The Hamilton Project, are releasing a new paper Wednesday on the costs of American energy policy. They argue:

For example, Mr. Greenstone and Mr. Looney estimate that a coal plant must spend 3.2 cents to produce a kilowatt hour of electricity (and consumers then pay slightly more than this). This price appears to be a bargain, the economists write, but the true costs — once health costs, military costs and the like are taken into account — are more than twice high: 8.8 cents per kilowatt hour.

The paper calls for four steps that will be familiar to anyone who follows climate policy: a carbon tax or cap-and-trade system; more money for research and development; more efficient regulations; and negotiations with foreign countries over similar steps elsewhere. In the foreseeable future, all these steps all seem to be an enormous long shot. But the climate problem is not going away.

In addition to being the director of the Hamilton Project, Mr. Greenstone is an M.I.T. professor and one of the country’s leading environment economists. More from the paper follows:

Full text pdf available here: A Strategy for America’s Energy Future

Projections of World Energy Consumption (EIA 2010)

‘Under the Dome’ showcases discovery and innovation; first open house in decades.
Emily Finn, MIT News Office
April 30, 2011

The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change participated in Saturday's Open House with exhibits in the Energy, Environment and Sustainability Tent

Approximately 20,000 people descended on campus Saturday for “Under the Dome,” MIT's first open house in more than 30 years, where visitors of all ages got an up-close and often hands-on view of MIT’s cutting-edge work.

During the 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. event, virtually every segment of the Institute, from cancer research to aeronautics to the performing arts, opened its doors with demonstrations, lectures and activities to engage the community. Of the makeup of the diverse crowd, MIT President Susan Hockfield said, “We’ve seen lots of families and lots of young people. Some of them are MIT students-to-be — I hope today holds enough interest and excitement to fuel your passion for the kind of things we do here.”

Dan Coleman of Mobile, Ala., who came to MIT with his 16-year-old son, was impressed by the accessibility of the event. “People have this idea that stuff at MIT is all over their heads, but [this event] brings it down to a level much closer to what they see every day,” he said.

Look up, look down, look all around
At precisely 11 a.m., twin Black Hawk helicopters flew over the Charles River, circled Simmons Hall and touched down in Briggs Field, kicking up dust over a delighted crowd. Their pilots, from the National Guard and MIT Army ROTC, descended from the choppers to explain aspects of the Black Hawks’ design and function and pose for photos.

But the helicopters were just the beginning for flight enthusiasts. Many of the day’s events had visitors looking up — while piloting a basketball-sized SPHERES satellite in the Space Systems Lab, or observing the trajectories of model airplanes they had built with their own hands. There were demonstrations of how aircraft can be flown using everything from computers to robots to iPhones.

While some craned their necks skyward, others bent over magnifiers, peering through lenses to examine carbon nanotubes or biology’s tiny “water bear” organisms. “They really do look like bears,” said 11-year-old Andrea Burke of Cambridge, raising her eyebrows as she peered through a microscope.

“There’s been a lot of interest; it’s great to see people from all different backgrounds and ages come out and actually ask really smart questions,” said Andrew Kopeikin, a graduate student in aeronautics and astronautics, who was running a station where visitors could fly unmanned aerial vehicles.

Meg Krench, a graduate student in brain and cognitive sciences, echoed Kopeikin’s sentiments as she held one end of a rope demonstration designed to simulate the actions of neurons. “I’ve been fascinated by the number of kids that have come by that have been so well versed in neuroscience,” she said.

Robots, glass art and contests — oh my!
Many of the day’s activities carried a competitive component. A blimp contest, hosted by former astronaut Jeff Hoffman, Professor of the Practice in Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, featured several heats of student-built remote-controlled blimps racing around a track set up in the Johnson Athletics Center. “[The team] ‘Nerdy Blimp Domination’ had a pretty awesome finish,” according to 8-year-old Elias Hyde of Cambridge.

Hockfield herself announced the winner of the blimp competition when she took the stage at 1 p.m. in Johnson to deliver a welcome speech.

“I want to thank you all for being right here, right now, because I know there are about 2,000 other things you could be doing all around campus,” she said, before ceding the stage to the Department of Mechanical Engineering’s much-anticipated 2.007 robot competition.

Robots were indeed a theme throughout the day. There were robots made from LEGOs, robots that could chase a moving light, and robots that could scuttle up the sides of buildings. The ground floor of the Stata Center played host to a vast array of engineering demonstrations that captivated young and old alike.

When asked what her favorite activity was, Daniela Ronga, an 11-year-old from Pelham, N.H., was deciding between robots that could pick up tennis balls, a rope-system rescue demonstration ascending the wall of Building 3, and glass blowing.

"I don’t know. There’s been a lot of cool things here,” she said with a smile.

Sharing the stage
Even amid a heavy science focus, MIT arts claimed a slice of the spotlight, as student music groups regaled visitors with a steady stream of performances outside the Stratton Student Center, as well as inside Kresge Auditorium and a nearby tent.

“I came for the science, but I guess I didn’t realize how much arts there are here,” said Amanda Garcia, a 14-year-old from Bedford, Mass., over the sounds of a nearby bagpipe.

Some activities even bridged art and science, like a math-inspired origami project that showed visitors how to create infinitely interlocking Sonobe units, or a Media Lab demonstration that had guests making music with pencils. Art installations across campus that were part of the MIT150 Festival of Art + Science + Technology (FAST) attracted plenty of attention, with guests pausing to smile and frown at the MIT Mood Meters — camera software that can detect facial expressions — installed in high-traffic corridors.

The entrepreneurial spirit also had a strong showing, with a startup showcase at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a lecture by Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond. “It’s great to show people what we do. I don’t know if this is more fun for them or for us!” said linguistics graduate student Kirill Shklovsky, who was luring participants with the promise of Mexican chocolate if they could solve puzzles in a rare Mayan language.

Delighting the senses
Meanwhile, tucked away in the northwest corner of campus, audience members donned “holographic diffraction glasses” as plasma scientists turned off the lights to reveal the distinct rainbow patterns — due to differing energy levels — produced by incandescent bulbs, compact fluorescent lamps and pure mercury. The demonstration even made use of everyday substances such as nail polish and pickles to light the room.

Across Massachusetts Avenue, visitors donned headphones — to block out the 120-decibel sound levels — and entered MIT’s Wright Brothers Wind Tunnel, where hair and loose clothing flapped wildly as they were subjected to winds that, according to 8-year-old Christian Gray of Cambridge, “felt much stronger than 30 miles per hour.”

t least one activity was not on the event’s official schedule. At noon, visitors in and around Lobby 7 were treated to a flash mob performance that began with five dancers and grew to a crowd of more than 100 MIT students, faculty and staff dancing in choreographed unison. Once the group reached a critical mass, it spilled out across Massachusetts Avenue, where police stopped traffic and more members of the MIT community — including some senior administrators — joined the dancers as they made their way across the street, many of them waving various nations’ flags above their heads. MIT mascot Tim the Beaver escorted Hockfield to the top of the steps, where she smiled and waved to the crowd.

“So, what do you think: Should we do this more often?” Hockfield asked a few minutes later, during her welcome speech. (Saturday’s event was MIT’s first open house since 1978.) The crowd’s enthusiastic cheers gave her the answer.

Nuclear power is poised to grow quickly in some parts of the world and could grow significantly here in the United States. Key decisions are pending, however, on how to structure that growth. MIT has completed a 3-year study on the Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle to address two overarching questions: (1) What are the long-term desirable fuel cycle options and (2) What are the implications for near-term policy choices?

On Tuesday, April 26, the study co-chairs - Professor Ernest J. Moniz, Director of the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) and Professor Mujid Kazimi, Director of the MIT Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems - as well as Dr. Charles Forsberg, Executive Director of the MIT Fuel Cycle Study, and other members of the study group will discuss the findings and recommendations and respond to questions. The final report will be available both at the briefing and on the MITEI website after the event. The report is aimed principally at US government, industry, and academic leaders, but the study is carried out from an international perspective.

The press conference at which the study was released was webcast and can be viewed here. A summary of the report’s conclusions had been released earlier in September in a press conference held at the Center for Strategic and International Studies which can be viewed here.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) can make a significant contribution towards reducing ozone levels. That's according to a study by US researchers who modelled the effect of different charging scenarios for PHEVs on ozone levels over the state of Texas, US.

Many regions of Texas fail to meet national air quality standards for ozone. Tammy Thompson and her colleagues from the University of Texas wanted to find out what effect the introduction of PHEVs would have on the levels of this pollutant.

A previous study had looked at night-time charging of PHEVs using electricity generated by coal-fired power stations. Although the researchers found that the overall ozone concentration would decrease by up to 8 ppb in a few highly populated areas, the work also showed that ozone concentrations, and those of other pollutants, might actually increase in certain highly localized areas (like those close to the power plant, for example), leading to an overall worsening of air quality. This suggests that the overall impact of PHEVs will be complex.

"We wanted to expand on this and look at different charging scenarios, and also model the Texas power grid to take into account the different sources of electricity," Thompson told environmentalresearchweb.
The researchers examined the impact of replacing 20% of gasoline-powered vehicle miles travelled (VMT) with electric VMT by the year 2018 in four major Texas cities. This involved first modelling the Texas power grid and the different electricity generation units that will be online in 2018 – including nuclear, coal, natural gas, biomass and wind energy plants.

Using this data, the researchers then modelled the different levels of ozone precursors, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), that would be emitted by these power stations when the PHEVs are being charged. They used three different charging scenarios – night-time charging; charging to maximize battery life; and charging to maximize driver convenience. "Using this data to then model ozone levels is not straightforward because ozone is formed via a photochemical reaction when NOx, carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) react in the atmosphere in the presence of sunlight," said Thompson. "For our modelling, we selected four days in 2018. These days were selected to represent four varying wind patterns, each blowing the emissions from power plants into or away from the cities being modelled."

The calculations showed that day-time ozone levels were reduced in most cases and were mainly due to the fact that there were fewer gasoline-powered cars on the roads. The different charging scenarios all produced similar amounts of ozone, with the night-time charging scenario deemed the most environmentally friendly.

"Ozone levels drop during the night because sunlight drives the production of ozone," said Thompson. "But Texas has more installed wind power than any other state and that wind blows strongly at night, which opens up the prospects for emissions-free charging of some portion of electric vehicles."

However, Texas experiences many episodes of high ozone concentrations and Thompson warns that "it is going to take a lot more than just a few PHEVs to significantly change the ozone levels over Texas for the better".

The researchers published their research in Environmental Research Letters (ERL).

Photo credits: Justin Knight

U.S. chief climate negotiator, MIT panel examine the science and policy of global warming

Signing a legally binding treaty that would force emissions reductions throughout the world is not likely in the near future, according to U.S. State Department Special Envoy for Climate Change Todd Stern, who visited MIT last week. But that shouldn't stop the United States from moving forward in addressing climate change issues, he said.

Stern's talk on Thursday, April 22, was part of the Earth Week Colloquium sponsored by the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) and the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

In his speech, Stern said work on an international treaty would inevitably hit a “dead end,” primarily because of a flaw in the first major global climate treaty signed nearly two decades ago. In 1992, 194 parties signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a non-binding agreement between countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty set no mandatory limits, but it did draw a distinction between developed and developing countries. Ever since, Stern said, there has been a “firewall” at the negotiating table, with developing countries such as China arguing that the United States and other developed nations should bear the brunt of greenhouse gas reductions. [More... ]

Climate change, from past to future

Following Stern’s talk, a panel of MIT experts discussed scientific developments in climate change over the past 150 years, and made projections for the next 100 years, based on climate models and on-the-ground action to address global warming effects.

The panel was moderated by John M. Reilly, co-director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Participants included Kerry Emanuel, the Breene M. Kerr Professor of Atmospheric Science; Christopher Knittel, the William Barton Rogers Professor of Energy Economics; MITEI Director Ernest Moniz, the Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems; Ronald Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Science; and Sarah Slaughter, MITEI's associate director for buildings and infrastructure.

Emanuel looked back at the history of climate change, noting that hundreds of thousands of years ago, the very site where the panel was held — Wong Auditorium — would have been buried under a massive sheet of ice. Emanuel pointed out that volcanic activity and other natural phenomena may explain temperature spikes during the Earth’s early history, but “there aren’t any other culprits” aside from humans to explain the warming trends seen in the past 150 years.

Prinn, who discussed the next 100 years, described a “new dimension to climate science,” with climate modelers working with social and political scientists to examine patterns of human activity related to global warming. Prinn said science is already revealing alarming signs of climate change, including shrinking summer sea ice in the Arctic, a harmful rise in ocean acidity and increased destructiveness of hurricanes.

Knittel brought an economist’s perspective to the panel, noting that “what we really want is a global price on carbon dioxide.” Setting a fee for carbon-polluting technologies would serve as an incentive to develop alternative energy sources. While a carbon price is unlikely, Knittel pointed to actions by some U.S. states, including California, to set emissions standards for state transportation and electricity sectors.

Following Knittel’s talk, Moniz outlined existing low-carbon technologies and their challenges. He said, “De-carbonizing … really is the big game-changer … but there’s enormous pressure to provide energy services for nine to 10 billion people by mid-century.” Moniz said setting emissions standards would eventually squeeze out high-carbon energy sources such as coal and natural gas, leaving a huge energy gap to fill. “We better have a bridge to somewhere,” Moniz said. “And that somewhere is ultimately zero-carbon sources like nuclear, carbon sequestration and renewable energy.”

Slaughter rounded out the panel with a look at action on the ground to address climate change. She noted that “even if we could magically stop greenhouse gas emissions right now,” global temperatures would continue to rise. She and other faculty members at MIT have partnered with a number of organizations to identify ways to transform transportation and building infrastructure to be more energy efficient and environmental-disaster resilient.

But Slaughter ended the climate discussion on an optimistic note: “Rather than repaving or simply moving the things we have now ... we actually have an incredible opportunity to build the world we want to live in.”

In MIT visit, Lisa Jackson discusses how technology can affect government regulations.

Technological innovations have the ability to change environmental policies just as much as those policies can affect innovation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lisa P. Jackson said during a visit to MIT on Friday, Apr. 15. In delivering the annual Henry W. Kendall Memorial Lecture, Jackson urged students and faculty at the Institute to look for sustainable solutions to environmental problems.

Jackson, a chemical engineer, addressed the relationship between science and environmental policy, and spoke about the chicken-and-egg nature of her job. “How do we implement the laws we have, and try to make sure we don’t stifle innovation … but also ultimately realize we need legislation to get there?” she said.

She noted that environmental policies often act as incentives for scientists to develop new technologies. At the same time, new inventions can spur changes in environmental laws. “We catalyze each other,” she said.

A symbiotic relationship between science and environmental policy is especially crucial for the issue of climate change, Jackson said. Earlier this month, members of Congress drafted measures that would have prevented the EPA from regulating carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act, a “fairly draconian move,” according to Jackson. The Senate failed to pass the measures, and President Barack Obama has said he would veto any similar bills in the future.


Photo credit: Manohar Balagatte Srikanth

But the issue is likely not dead, Jackson said, and when it comes time for Congress to draft the federal budget for 2012, “we’ll probably see this battle played out again.” In the meantime, provided the EPA’s authority remains intact, the agency will start to set milestones for industries — the energy sector in particular — to curb greenhouse gas emissions, she said. Looking ahead, Jackson said she would like to see the conversation on climate change shift from politics to science, to focus on developing technologies to minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Such innovations, she hopes, could ultimately push climate change policy forward.

“I think we do have policy cobwebs all over the place right now,” Jackson said. “I will admit I have a bias that leads me to believe — partly as an engineer — that we have to not settle for standards that are not progressive enough.”

[More... ]

While impacts will vary by region, projections indicate that drought frequency will increase throughout most of the contiguous United States.
Danya Rumore, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

The impacts of drought in the United States are estimated to cost an average of $6 to $8 billion per year. These impacts are likely to increase if drought risk throughout the United States is exacerbated by climate change, suggests a team of researchers led by Ken Strzepek of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

To analyze the effect of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts across the contiguous United States, the team looked at 99 water sub-basins, applying two different indices for drought to all 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) circulation models under three emissions scenarios (SRES). Results indicate that meteorological drought — which is based upon precipitation alone — will become more frequent in some parts of the U.S., such as the southwestern states, and less frequent in others. However, projections suggest that hydrological drought — which is based upon precipitation and temperature, which affects soil moisture — will increase across most of the country.

Given the comprehensive nature of the study, researcher Gary Yohe of Wesleyan University suggests that, "These results are robust across the economic drivers of climate change — as reflected in the alternative socio-economic scenarios (three IPCC SRES alternatives) — and the sensitivity of the climate to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations.” Additionally, the study finds that different definitions of drought generate different projections of drought distribution and frequency, pointing to the need to use multiple indices when studying drought risk.

Model projections indicate that the impact of climate change on drought frequency and severity will vary by region, with the southwestern U.S. and Rocky Mountain states likely to experience the largest increases in drought frequency. Additionally, results suggest that climate change may increase the longevity of droughts in many regions, causing events that would otherwise be mild droughts to become severe or even extreme droughts. This finding is important for policymakers who are considering adaptive responses, as current measures to manage droughts may be overwhelmed by large changes in the severity of future droughts. While the authors suggest that exploiting existing excess water storage capacity or reservoir yield may be able to ameliorate the negative impacts of increased drought, they caution that greater research is needed in this area to identify basins where such opportunities exist.

This study did not explicitly analyze the effect of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation on drought risk; however, results demonstrate that the impact of climate change on drought frequency will depend upon the level of future greenhouse gas emissions, providing evidence that lower carbon dioxide concentrations are associated with lower drought risk throughout the U.S. The research team, according to Yohe, “therefore offer preliminary support for the hypothesis that mitigation could reduce drought risk.”