Expansion of the Brazilian Sugarcane Bioenergy System Promotes Greenhouse Emission Reductions and Sustainable Development Without Compromising Food Sec

Abstract: The growing global demand for biofuels has raised concern about compromising food security. This study uses two independent economy-wide models to evaluate the impact of expanding the Brazilian sugarcane bioenergy system on economic growth, social outcomes and food security.

Our analysis finds that increasing Brazilian sugarcane ethanol production by 37% over the 2024/2025 harvest has slightly positive impacts on food security, with marginal but variable effects on prices and household consumption across regions, depending on the model assumptions and analyzed scenario. Under future climate mitigation scenarios, expanding the sugarcane bioenergy system would result in a 6% increase in food consumption and between 2% and 3.5% rise in Brazil's gross domestic product per capita by 2030. These outcomes stem from the properties of the sugarcane ethanol industry, including its high energy yield, low carbon footprint, contribution to labor and income generation, and role in agricultural intensification. 

Our results demonstrate the importance of considering comprehensive economic linkages when evaluating bioenergy impacts, including income-side effects, thereby moving beyond isolated price-based analyses.