Temperature Implications of the 2023 Shell Energy Security Scenarios: Sky 2050 and Archipelagos

Abstract: We analyze temperature implications of energy security-focused scenarios developed by Shell. The Sky 2050 scenario explores the world developing in increasingly sustainable directions, with the corresponding energy needs for a global net-zero CO2 target achieved by the year 2050.  In contrast, the Archipelagos scenario sees the ongoing energy transition facing a mixture of support and hindrance by geopolitics and security steady technological development continues. Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate 400-member ensembles, reflecting uncertainty in the Earth system response, of global temperature change associated with each scenario relative to pre-industrial (mean of 1850-1900) levels. Our analysis shows that the Sky 2050 scenario is an overshoot 1.5°C scenario (category C2 by the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Global surface temperature (ensemble median) in this scenario stays above 1.5°C for 40 years, from 2034 to 2073, reaches its peak of 1.67°C in 2051, and then declines to 1.24°C by 2100. For the Archipelagos scenario, mean temperature passes 1.5°C in 2033, 2°C in 2060, and reaches 2.22°C in 2100. We find that likely (33-66%) range in 2100 is 1.16-1.33°C for the Sky 2050 scenario and 2.10-2.33°C for the Archipelagos scenario. The corresponding very likely (5%-95%) ranges are 0.97-1.56°C and 1.73-2.72°C, respectively.