The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model

The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is a component of an Integrated Framework of natural and social science models being developed by the MIT Global Change Joint Program. It is a detailed, global, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a long time horizon and regional as well as sectoral detail. The EPPA model can be used to project economic activity, energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for each of 12 regions through the year 2100. The model can also be used to simulate different GHG mitigation policy scenarios and to analyze the impacts and consequences of these policies. Within the MIT Integrated Framework, the EPPA projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions are inputs to a coupled chemistry-climate model. It thereby forms the first link in an integrated analysis of global climate change.

The EPPA model is derived from the General Equilibrium Environmental (GREEN) model, which was developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The evolution of EPPA from GREEN involved adapting the model to the requirements of the Joint Program's integrated analysis. The processes of improving and extending the model are continuing. This report describes the basic structure of the EPPA model, and outlines the way that assumptions about technology and growth are used in defining alternative simulations. A brief discussion of the solution algorithm is included, as well as an introduction to the policy instruments implemented in the model. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the capabilities and behavior of the model, and anticipated future developments of the EPPA model are summarized.