Unequal impacts of rising temperatures on global human sentiment

Science for society

Rising global temperatures create widespread emotional distress, yet evidence of psychological impacts across economic contexts has been lacking. This gap means climate policies may overlook human suffering, leaving vulnerable populations unsupported as heat events increase. Without understanding how temperature affects emotional well-being globally, policymakers cannot assess climate change’s true social costs or design equitable interventions protecting physical and psychological health. Our analysis of 1.2 billion social media posts from 157 countries reveals that moderate warming improves sentiment in cooler regions, but temperatures above 35°C harm well-being globally, with disproportionate impacts on poorer countries and projected 2.3% sentiment decline by 2100. These findings enable integrating emotional well-being into climate strategies, developing temperature-based warning systems and targeting support where impacts are most severe.

Highlights

• Global temperature effects on human sentiment quantified using 1.2 billion posts

• Daily maximum temperatures above 35°C worsen sentiment by 0.244 SD globally

• Low-income countries show 3× stronger sentiment decline than wealthy nations

Summary

Climate change poses growing risks to human well-being, yet research on its emotional impact has primarily focused on developed nations, obscuring potential global inequalities in psychological vulnerability. Here, we analyze over 1.2 billion social media posts from 157 countries to reveal how rising temperatures affect human sentiment worldwide and project future impacts under climate scenarios. We find a non-linear relationship where moderate warming can improve sentiment in cooler regions, but temperatures above 35°C negatively impact emotional well-being globally, with effects three times greater in low- and middle-income countries (25.0% decline in sentiment) than in high-income countries (8.1%). Even accounting for climate adaptation through income growth, we project global average sentiment will be 2.3% lower in 2100 than in 2019 due to future warming, indicating lasting psychological costs disproportionately burdening the world’s poorest populations. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate policies that integrate emotional impacts and address inequalities in psychological climate vulnerability.

Graphical abstract