Rethinking Resilience of Low-Carbon Transportation Using a Multi-System Dynamic Approach

Context & Scale
Transportation systems worldwide are undergoing a rapid and radical transformation while facing new challenges brought on by environmental and technological change, albeit at varying paces and degrees across regions. The transition to low- and zero-emission transportation technologies introduces complex challenges. Emerging stressors—including climate change, pandemics, and technological advancements like autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence—expose vulnerabilities in current transportation systems. The integration of low-carbon fuels including electricity, hydrogen, e-fuels (including green ammonia, and green methanol) further complicates resilience planning due to their unique supply chains and infrastructure requirements. These developments necessitate a reevaluation of resilience metrics while taking a comprehensive, system-oriented approach that accounts for the interdependencies among transportation, energy, and communication networks. Well-designed systems-thinking for resilience is essential for safeguarding physical assets and ensuring service continuity, which are crucial for economic stability and public safety in future transportation systems.
 

Summary
This perspective advocates for the adoption of multi-system dynamics (MSD) as a framework to enhance resilience in coupled transportation and energy sectors. MSD emphasizes the interconnectedness of physical and social systems and the need for a holistic approach to address emerging stressors, such as climate change and technological disruptions. By accounting for interdependencies across sectors, MSD enables better scenario analysis, infrastructure investment, and policy design to improve system adaptability. This approach helps stakeholders anticipate cascading effects and mitigate risks associated with the low-carbon transition. In doing so, MSD strengthens resilience by fostering multi-stakeholder collaboration and supporting flexible, long-term planning. Ultimately, this framework supports the development of a sustainable and robust transportation-energy ecosystem.