Phytoplankton Chlorophyll Trends in the Arctic at the Local, Regional, and Pan-Arctic Scales (1998–2022)

Abstract

We analyzed the temporal trends (1998–2022) of surface phytoplankton Chlorophyll (Chl) concentration in the Arctic at the local, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. We used four empirically derived Chl satellite ocean color products: two global merged products and two MODIS products, one calibrated to the Arctic. At the local level, between 10% and 40% of the area with valid pixels showed statistically significant Chl trends, with ∼2/3 of those pixels showing increases, and the other third indicating a decrease. At the regional level, only the Barents and Chukchi Seas had consistent Chl increases across products. At the pan-Arctic level, most products showed Chl increases in the months of July and September (0.3%–0.9% Chl year−1), even after removing the effect of new open water pixels. Overall, Chl is changing in the Arctic, although trends vary threefold depending on the product and spatial-averaging assumptions used.

Key Points

• Depending on the month and product, 10%–40% of the area with valid pixels showed statistically significant Chl trends
• Chl trends in the Arctic are heterogeneous, with some regions increasing and other decreasing
• Magnitude and significance of Chl trends varied depending on the satellite product used

Plain Language Summary

The Arctic is undergoing critical physical changes that can affect marine ecosystems. Here we analyzed how the concentration of phytoplankton (microorganisms at the base of the marine food-web) has changed since 1998. To do so, we investigated the temporal trends of chlorophyll (a signature of phytoplankton) as derived from satellites. We found that about 10%–40% of the area with valid satellite pixels had statistically significant phytoplankton trends, with some regions increasing and others decreasing. Over the entire Arctic, Chl has been increasing since 1998, however, the magnitude and statistical significance of the trends varied depending on the satellite product used.