Photo: AGU Fall Meeting Central Exhibit Hall (Source: AGU)
AGU Fall Meeting to explore next steps for science
MIT CS3 presentations highlight several sustainability challenges and solutions
The largest gathering of Earth and space scientists, the AGU (American Geophysical Union) Fall Meeting draws more than 25,000 attendees from over 100 countries each year to share research findings and identify innovative solutions to complex problems. Organized around the theme “What’s next for Science?”, the 2024 AGU Fall Meeting will take place in Washington, D.C. and online on December 9 - 13.
Among those researchers will be 29 co-authors of oral and poster presentations, and conveners of conference sessions, who are affiliated with the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3). Listed below—links to each abstract, along with the names of CS3 co-authors or conveners (in bold for presenting authors or primary conveners)—their 39 presentations and sessions span multiple CS3 research topics, including Earth and societal system modeling; multi-sector dynamics; land use and natural climate solutions; flood risk and climate resilience; ocean carbon cycling; and atmospheric science, air quality/health and climate.
Categorized by research topic, these linked presentations and sessions highlight recent findings by CS3 researchers and their co-authors on a wide range of sustainability challenges and solutions.
Earth and societal system modeling
These presentations focus on the development, integration and/or application of models of Earth and societal systems.
Modeling flood resilience and food security pathways in river basins (Noelle E Selin)
GC13V-05Why Pattern Scaling Works in Earth System Models - And When It Does Not (Paolo Giani, Arlene M Fiore, Noelle E Selin)
GC13V-07Accounting for Memory and Explainability in Emulating Dynamical Systems (Christopher Womack, Glenn Flierl, Andre Souza, Raffaele Ferrari, Noelle E Selin)
Assessing Surface Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Across Climate Scenarios Using an Integrated Human-Earth Systems Model with CESM (Popat Salunke, C Adam Schlosser, Andrei P Sokolov, Jeffery R Scott)
GC11HAdvances in Emulating Earth System Models I Poster (Bjorn Lutjens)
GC13VAdvances in Emulating Earth System Models II Oral (Bjorn Lutjens)
NG41A-02ClimSim-Online: A Large Multi-scale Dataset and Framework for Hybrid ML-physics Climate Emulation (Bjorn Lutjens)
A Statistical Emulator Design for Monthly Averaged Climate Fields (Andre Souza, Raffaele Ferrari)
These presentations and sessions investigate potential scenarios, risks and transition states of interconnected Earth and societal systems.
Identifying the Key Drivers of Global and Regional Food-Energy-Water Security Outcomes through Scenario Discovery (Jennifer F Morris)
GC21E - Multisector Dynamics: Science and Modeling for Societal Transformation I Oral (Jennifer F Morris)
GC23L - Multisector Dynamics: Science and Modeling for Societal Transformation II Oral (Jennifer F Morris)
GC31V - Multisector Dynamics: Science and Modeling for Societal Transformation IV Poster (Jennifer F Morris)
GC52D-04Agricultural land use dynamics in major river-basins under multiple stressors (Angelo Gurgel, Xiang Gao, John M Reilly, C Adam Schlosser, Jennifer F Morris, Sergey Paltsev)
Land use and natural climate solutions
These presentations examine the impact of agriculture, forestry and other land-use practices on climate mitigation and air quality.
Forestation favours carbon neutrality and ozone air pollution abatement (Zehui Liu, Noelle E Selin, C Adam Schlosser, Angelo Gurgel, Xiang Gao)
GC21A-05Mutual Reinforcement of Land-based Carbon Dioxide Removal and International Emissions Trading in Deep Decarbonization Scenarios (Jennifer F Morris, Angelo Gurgel, Sergey Paltsev)
GC52D-05Assessing the Impact of Abandoning Historical Agroforestry Practices on Carbon Dioxide removal: implication for restoration policies (Filippo Brandolini, Angelo Gurgel)
Flood risk and climate resilience
These presentations explore the development and application of models to inform decision-makers seeking to assess flood and other climate risk and design adaptive solutions.
H52F-02A novel approach to scalable data driven pluvial flood modeling utilizing a 1&2D hydrodynamic flood model tool for urban flood management (Kenneth M Strzepek)
NH14C-02An Integrated Modeling Framework for Flood Risk in Coastal Urban Landscapes (Kenneth M Strzepek, Sami Shokrana, Sai Ravela)
NH34A-03Integrated flood risk framework for designing climate resilient urban infrastructure systems (Kenneth M Strzepek)
Assessing cascading flood hazards in a warming climate (Sai Ravela)
H21E-04Learning Surrogate Extreme Rainfall-driven Inundation Models with Few Data (Sai Ravela)
SY32A-01Systematic Analysis of Climate Resilient Development: A Macro-economic framework (Kenneth M Strzepek)
H21E-03Comparative Analyses of Open-Source Vs. Licensed Commercial Models in Predicting Urban Flooding under Climate Change Extremes (Sami Shokrana, Kenneth Strzepek)
Ocean carbon cycling
This presentation showcases a modeling framework for monitoring the global carbon cycle, which can be used to inform climate resilience strategies for land and marine practices, and evaluate marine carbon dioxide removal strategies.
Monitoring Present-day Ocean Carbon Cycling Response to Terrestrial Biogeochemical Fluxes with the ECCO-Darwin Data-Assimilative Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (Stephanie Dutkiewicz)
Atmospheric science, air quality/health, and climate
These presentations center on the development and application of models aimed at better understanding the functioning of the Earth’s atmosphere, and its responses to drivers of air quality and climate change.
Atmospheric science
A52C-02AMORE V2.0: A Comprehensive Algorithm for the Automated Model Reduction of Atmospheric Oxidation Mechanisms (Arlene M Fiore)
Climate sensitivity and cloud feedback dependence on scale and strength of mean-state Walker circulation (Arlene M Fiore)
Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Attributable to Aviation NOx Emissions (Arlene M Fiore)
Air quality/health
A53T-02Regional Differences in Surface Ozone and PM2.5 due to Aviation (Shreya Sharma, Prakash Prashanth)
Springtime High Ozone Events in the Northeast United States: Placing 2024 in a Climatological Context (Arlene M Fiore)
A11G-03Exploring Wildfire-Influenced Ozone Production from Local to Global Scales (Arlene M Fiore)
GH54A-01Policy and health relevant applications of NO2 remote sensing data (Arlene M Fiore)
Using Observations to Constrain Bidirectional Exchange of Elemental Mercury Between Atmosphere and Vegetation (Noelle E Selin)
A52C-03A Novel Geographically Weighted Gaussian Process Regression (GW-GPR) Global Air Quality Emulator (Anthony Y.H. Wong, Noelle E Selin)
Understanding Controls on the Atmospheric Methane Sink: Towards Synergistic Climate-Air Quality Solutions (Arlene M Fiore, Jeffery R Scott)
Climate
Quantifying the Impacts of Wildfires on Permafrost, Hydrology, and Carbon Dynamics in Northern High Latitudes (Ronald G Prinn)
Increases in global and East Asian nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) emissions inferred from atmospheric observations and GEOS-Chem (Yu Liu, Ronald G Prinn)
A44D-02Emissions of Perfluorinated Greenhouse Gases in China Determined from Atmospheric Observations (Minde An, Ronald G Prinn)
Biogenic Emissions Modulate the Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical (OH) Response to Climate Warming (Arlene M Fiore)
Please note that due to the AGU Fall Meeting abstract submission deadline, many of our CS3 researchers are identified in the AGU scientific program as members of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change or the MIT Center for Global Change Science, which were incorporated into CS3 on July 1.